股指期货将震荡整理，黄金、白银、铜、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤期货将偏弱震荡，玻璃、原油期货将震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 9, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while gold, silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, and coking coal futures are likely to decline with fluctuations. Glass and crude oil futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - Index Futures: On December 9, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2603 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 107.74 and 107.61 yuan and resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan [2]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2603 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with wide - range fluctuations, with support at 111.7 and 111.5 yuan and resistance at 112.3 and 112.6 yuan [2]. - Gold Futures: The AU2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 950.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram and facing resistance at 958.7 and 963.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver Futures: The AG2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 13487 and 13365 yuan/kg and facing resistance at 13918 and 14000 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 91700 and 91000 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 93300 and 94000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22030 and 21970 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 22220 and 22300 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2550 and 2530 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2595 and 2615 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22970 and 22870 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 23300 and 23400 yuan/ton [3]. - Tin Futures: The SN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 314000 and 310300 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 319200 and 323700 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2601 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 54400 and 53600 yuan/ton and resistance at 55200 and 55700 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with resistance at 97000 and 97300 yuan/ton and support at 93500 and 91700 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3089 and 3074 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3123 and 3146 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3260 and 3238 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3298 and 3306 yuan/ton [6]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 753 and 750 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 760 and 763 yuan/ton [6]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1070 and 1050 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1110 and 1115 yuan/ton [6]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 967 and 950 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1004 and 1016 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1100 and 1080 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1137 and 1148 yuan/ton, and may hit a new low since listing [6]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel and facing resistance at 454 and 456 yuan/barrel [6]. - Fuel Oil Futures: The FU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 2422 and 2394 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2485 and 2507 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA Futures: The TA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4654 and 4624 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4678 and 4694 yuan/ton [7]. - PVC Futures: The V2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4380 and 4330 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4433 and 4445 yuan/ton [7]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2055 and 2022 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2089 and 2104 yuan/ton [7]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, with support at 2768 and 2758 yuan/ton and resistance at 2795 and 2805 yuan/ton [7]. - Corn Futures: The C2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2227 and 2215 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2259 and 2269 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to maintain stability while making progress and improve quality and efficiency [8]. - China's total goods trade imports and exports from January to November 2025 reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the growth rate of goods trade rebounded [8]. - From January to November 2025, the national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of over 29 trillion yuan and investigated 1818 "high - income and high - profile" individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan in taxes [9]. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce, Ling Ji, held video talks with the chairmen of the German and European Automobile Industry Associations, hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case and find a solution for the global supply chain of Nexperia [9]. - Many experts expect China to continue implementing an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and an increase in the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds [9]. - Xiamen's "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes to explore the construction of a free - port - style special economic zone, promote cross - strait financial cooperation, and build a cross - strait common market [9]. - A 7.5 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the eastern waters near Honshu, Japan on December 8, 2025. The tsunami is not expected to affect China's coast [10]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9 and 10, 2025. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [10]. - US President Trump plans to sign an administrative order on AI regulation and launch an agricultural assistance program worth $12 billion [11]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October PPI data and plans to announce it together with the November 2025 PPI data on January 14, 2026 [11]. - Leaders of Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany discussed a new peace plan for the Ukraine crisis [11]. - Japan's Q3 2025 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarter - on - quarter contraction and a 2.3% year - on - year contraction. Real wages have declined for ten consecutive months [12]. - European Central Bank hawkish executive Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are on the upside and is satisfied with the market's bet on the next interest - rate hike [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The BIS warns that retail investors' "chasing behavior" is turning gold from a safe - haven asset into a speculative one, and gold and the stock market have entered an "explosive zone" [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a risk warning due to the complex international situation and large fluctuations in the precious metals market [12]. - On December 8, 2025, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell due to increased supply and weak demand [13]. - On December 8, 2025, international precious metal futures prices generally fell due to market pricing of the Fed's policy, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and profit - taking [13]. - On December 8, 2025, most London base metals prices fell, affected by the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting [14]. - On December 8, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [14][15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Index Futures: On December 8, 2025, major index futures contracts showed a trend of opening slightly higher, rising and then falling, and finally closing higher. They are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [15][16][19]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On December 8, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2603 had a slight increase, while the 30 - year contract TL2603 declined. They are expected to have different trends on December 9, 2025 [40][44]. - Gold Futures: On December 8, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2602 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [46][47]. - Silver Futures: On December 8, 2025, the silver futures contract AG2602 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [54][55]. - Copper Futures: On December 8, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [57]. - Aluminum Futures: On December 8, 2025, the aluminum futures contract AL2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [62]. - Alumina Futures: On December 8, 2025, the alumina futures contract AO2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [66]. - Zinc Futures: On December 8, 2025, the zinc futures contract ZN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [71][72]. - Tin Futures: On December 8, 2025, the tin futures contract SN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [74]. - Polysilicon Futures: On December 8, 2025, the polysilicon futures contract PS2601 had a large decline. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [80][81]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On December 8, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 had a slight increase. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [85]. - Rebar Futures: On December 8, 2025, the rebar futures contract RB2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [91]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On December 8, 2025, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [97]. - Iron Ore Futures: On December 8, 2025, the iron ore futures contract I2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [99]. - Coking Coal Futures: On December 8, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2605 declined significantly. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [103][104]. - Glass Futures: On December 8, 2025, the glass futures contract FG601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [107]. - Soda Ash Futures: On December 8, 2025, the soda ash futures contract SA601 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [111]. - Crude Oil Futures: On December 8, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [113]. - Fuel Oil Futures: On December 8, 2025, the fuel oil futures contract FU2601 had a significant increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [119]. - PTA Futures: On December 8, 2025, the PTA futures contract TA601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [121]. - PVC Futures: On December 8, 2025, the PVC futures contract V2601 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [122]. - Methanol Futures: On December