生猪：基差逻辑回归

Report Overview - Report Date: December 9, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Pigs: Basis Logic Regression" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - No information provided Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 11,380 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; Guangdong's is 12,160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - Futures Prices: The prices of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 11,575 yuan/ton, 11,385 yuan/ton, and 11,955 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 190 yuan, 300 yuan, and 150 yuan [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" is 51,761 lots, 108,904 lots, and 25,905 lots respectively, with increases of 17,755 lots, 69,636 lots, and 11,074 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 70,601 lots, 151,512 lots, and 78,481 lots respectively, with changes of - 12,739 lots, + 3,297 lots, and + 1,344 lots compared to the previous day [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" is - 195 yuan/ton, - 5 yuan/ton, and - 575 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 340 yuan, - 450 yuan, and - 300 yuan. The spread between "Pig 1 - 3" is 190 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan year - on - year; the spread between "Pig 3 - 5" is - 570 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan year - on - year [2] 2. Market Information - Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots of warehouse receipts on December 4; Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots of warehouse receipts on December 5 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4]