铝：区间震荡，氧化铝：承压运行，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound fluctuations [1] - Alumina: Under pressure [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views of the Report - The market trends of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are different, with aluminum showing range - bound fluctuations, alumina under pressure, and cast aluminum alloy following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Relevant Content Aluminum Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day, up 410 yuan from a week ago, 1,030 yuan from a month ago, and 1,505 yuan from three months ago [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 251,604 lots, with a decrease compared to different time periods [1] - The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 233,139 lots, showing different changes over time [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,887 US dollars, with corresponding price changes [1] - The LME注销仓单占比 is 8.12%, with changes compared to different time points [1] - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread is - 30.25 US dollars, with corresponding spread changes [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first - month contract is - 25 yuan, with different spread values at different times [1] - The cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive first - month inter - period arbitrage is 70.32 yuan, with cost changes [1] Alumina Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan, up 30 yuan from a week ago, with other price changes compared to different time periods [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 265,037 lots, with volume changes [1] - The open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 292,245 lots, showing different open interest changes [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first - month contract is - 38 yuan, with spread changes [1] - The cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive first - month inter - period arbitrage is 26.79 yuan, with cost changes [1] Aluminum Alloy Market - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,135 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day, up 80 yuan from a week ago [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract is 5,056 lots, with volume changes [1] - The open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract is 17,202 lots, showing open interest changes [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first - month contract is - 90 yuan, with spread changes [1] - The spot premium is - 90 yuan, with premium changes [1] Spot Market - The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is 59.10 tons, with inventory changes [1] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum ingots are 6.68 tons, with corresponding changes [1] - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang is 338 US dollars per ton, with price changes [1] - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,430 yuan, with price changes [1] Other Information - "Shadow Fed Chairman" Hassett believes that it is irresponsible for the Fed to announce the specific path of interest rate policy for the next six months, and Powell may also think that a rate cut is prudent. AI investment may bring a "positive supply shock" similar to the computer technology boom in the 1990s [3] - AI has entered the "liquid - cooling era", and the market has underestimated the "transformation intensity". The domestic supply chain is accelerating to enter the market. It is estimated that the demand for the liquid - cooling system of the NVIDIA platform will reach 69.7 billion yuan in 2026, and the ASIC demand will reach 35.3 billion yuan [3] - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]