铜：海外库存增加，或限制价格涨幅

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas inventory increase may limit the price increase of copper [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,970 with a daily increase of 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 92,400 with a decrease of 0.61%. The price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 11,675 with a daily increase of 0.09%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 412,040, an increase of 9,060 from the previous day, and the position was 658,740, an increase of 5,079. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 21,149, a decrease of 9,496, and the position was 342,000, an increase of 449 [1] - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 29,956, a decrease of 980. The LME Copper inventory was 164,550, an increase of 2,000, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 38.39%, a decrease of 0.89% [1] - Price Spreads: The LME Copper premium/discount decreased by 27.39 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,500. The spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 40, and the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread increased by 40 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting stated that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency. Trump said that the US inflation problem is basically solved. "Shadow Fed Chairman" Hassett believes that Powell may also think that interest rate cuts are prudent [1] - Industry News: In November, Chile's copper export volume was 124,422 tons, and the export volume of copper ore and concentrates was 1,054,487 tons.力拓上调了2025年铜产量预测 due to the accelerated operation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold project in Mongolia. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3]