股指：申万期货品种策略日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and rising expectations of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December FOMC meeting and China's Central Economic Working Conference will affect the rhythm of the A-share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment main line in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be mainly volatile with a preference for defensive allocation. After the meeting content is clear, the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to boost market risk appetite again [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) increased by 35.00, 38.20, 36.40, and 37.40 respectively, with daily returns of 0.76%, 0.84%, 0.80%, and 0.83%. The trading volumes were 76082.00, 7171.00, 31206.00, and 6069.00, and the open interests were 132821.00, 12625.00, 100004.00, and 27338.00. The changes in open interests were - 10475.00, 2113.00, 3575.00, and 444.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased by 11.60, 13.20, 12.20, and 11.60 respectively, with daily returns of 0.39%, 0.44%, 0.41%, and 0.39%. The trading volumes were 31875.00, 2747.00, 12170.00, and 3102.00, and the open interests were 55867.00, 4278.00, 26835.00, and 9084.00. The changes in open interests were - 3888.00, 251.00, 299.00, and 274.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased by 67.40, 71.40, 71.00, and 64.60 respectively, with daily returns of 0.95%, 1.02%, 1.03%, and 0.97%. The trading volumes were 63355.00, 6635.00, 28250.00, and 8807.00, and the open interests were 116565.00, 14910.00, 83437.00, and 33799.00. The changes in open interests were - 14425.00, 1959.00, 542.00, and 257.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased by 115.80, 112.80, 109.60, and 107.00 respectively, with daily returns of 1.61%, 1.58%, 1.57%, and 1.59%. The trading volumes were 146937.00, 10614.00, 47651.00, and 15250.00, and the open interests were 189203.00, 20509.00, 109308.00, and 57953.00. The changes in open interests were 8115.00, 3280.00, 6975.00, and 1387.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 15.80, - 5.60, - 53.60, and - 77.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.40, - 6.80, - 59.40, and - 76.20 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.84%, 0.93%, 1.21%, and 1.29% respectively [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, the raw materials, industrial, and real estate and finance sectors had positive daily returns of 2.07%, 1.16%, and 1.33% respectively, while the energy sector had a negative return of - 0.57% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's values of the basis for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indices showed different degrees of change compared with the values two days ago [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.70%, 1.08%, 0.68%, and 1.36% respectively [1] - Overseas Indices: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.58%, 2.33%, 0.19%, and 0.61% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the growth rate of goods trade rebounded [2] - From January to November this year, the national tax department organized tax and fee revenues exceeding 29 trillion yuan, and investigated 1818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan in taxes [2] - Experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% in 2025, and the new government debt scale may be between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [2] 6. Industry Information - Domestic refined oil prices had a "double - drop". From 24:00 on December 8, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel were both reduced by 55 yuan per ton [2] - The China Trustee Association will soon solicit opinions on the "Guidelines for Family Trust Business" [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.225 million, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The China Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will face great pressure in 2026 [2] - A land parcel in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base was successfully auctioned, with a floor price of about 77,360 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 42.49% [2]