新能源及有色金属日报：华东升水持续走高-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of zinc have turned from bearish to bullish, with low current valuation, optimistic future consumption, unchanged interest rate cut expectations, and unreflected re - inflation [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $163.00/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,130 yuan/ton with a premium of 70 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,030 yuan/ton with a premium of - 30 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,010 yuan/ton with a premium of - 50 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 12 - 08, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,190 yuan/ton, closed at 23,285 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 180,254 lots, and the open interest was 108,666 lots. The highest price was 23,335 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,965 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 12 - 08, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 57,750 tons, an increase of 2,375 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The TC of the zinc ore end continues to decline, the raw material inventory of smelters is still falling, and the procurement enthusiasm remains. The decline in TC has turned smelting from profit to loss. Most smelters in various regions are facing comprehensive smelting losses, and the smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, with a significant decline in smelting output month - on - month [5] - The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory center continues to decline, and the spot premium in East China remains high. The absolute value of LME inventory remains low, the spot premium is relatively high, and the export window remains open [5] Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6]