下游刚需采购，铅价仍陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lead concentrate market remains in a tight balance, with domestic TC at a low level and the negative processing fee range for imported ores expanding. Mines are reluctant to sell, leading to a passive reduction in smelting output. The domestic primary lead production rate is only 60%, and smelters in Hunan and Yunnan are undergoing maintenance until January. Secondary lead production is limited due to a shortage of scrap battery supplies and limited profit recovery, resulting in insufficient overall supply elasticity [3] - Although it is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, social inventories have continuously declined to a two - year low, and the spot premium is firm, providing support for prices. Additionally, the impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be beneficial to the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 17,300 yuan/ton and 17,350 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.15/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton, while the prices of scrap white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 8, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,340 yuan/ton and closed at 17,340 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,061 lots, a decrease of 6,447 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 43,107 lots, a decrease of 1,837 lots. The price fluctuated during the day, with a high of 17,380 yuan/ton and a low of 17,275 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,310 yuan/ton and closed at 17,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] - According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 120 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales, and some large - discount supplies were sold. In Hunan, smelters of deliverable lead brands offered premiums of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales, while non - deliverable brands sold at discounts of 80 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price [2] Inventory - On December 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous week. As of December 8, the LME lead inventory was 239,825 tons, a decrease of 3,725 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. Given the current market situation, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 17,300 yuan/ton and 17,350 yuan/ton this week [3]