供应端持续宽松，油脂承压震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side of oils and fats remains loose, and the prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The recent improvement of precipitation in Brazil, the good sowing progress in the producing areas, and the shortening of the La Nina impact window have led to good soybean supply expectations, which put pressure on the overall oils and fats market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming MPOB monthly report and USDA monthly report [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,706.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,502.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.00 yuan or 1.21% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.57%, and the spot basis was P05 + -36.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan or 1.22%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 248.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Agricultural Product Production and Supply - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 94% of the expected area. The total corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 135.3 million tons, compared with 141.1 million tons in the previous season [2] - The natural rubber market in Malaysia is expected to be mixed this week due to supply concerns caused by heavy rainfall. The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.89 million tons, while the demand is expected to grow by 0.8% to 15.57 million tons [2] Oilseed Processing and Import - In November, the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China was 9.01 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month, 830,000 tons year - on - year, and 1.2 million tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years. In December, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China may decline slightly, but the current operating rate of oil mills remains high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in the whole month is expected to be about 8.6 million tons, an increase of about 400,000 tons year - on - year and about 300,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [2] Import Price Changes - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) increased by 12 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (January shipment) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (March shipment) decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 9 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes also changed, with the Mexican Gulf (January shipment) increasing by 2 cents/bushel, the US West Coast (January shipment) decreasing by 10 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port (January shipment) increasing by 30 cents/bushel [2]