需求季节性走弱，市场震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].