郑棉上下两难，白糖止跌企稳

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - Cotton: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - Pulp: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]