国债期货日报：政治局会议明基调，国债期货涨跌分化-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Driven by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signals loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Fed's rate - cut expectations continue, and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while the monthly PPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% month - on - month with a 0.41% increase rate [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.00, down 0.06 month - on - month with a 0.06% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.0658, down 0.001 month - on - month with a 0.02% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, up 0.01 month - on - month with a 0.71% increase rate; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 month - on - month with a 0.55% increase rate; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 month - on - month with a 1.24% decrease rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.62, up 0.00 month - on - month with a 0.07% increase rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 month - on - month with a 0.07% increase rate [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing prices on December 8, 2025: TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.41 yuan, 105.75 yuan, 107.91 yuan, and 112.24 yuan respectively. Their respective price changes are 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.02%, and - 0.29% [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.012 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, 0.009 yuan, and 0.076 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Fiscal situation from January to October 2025: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force of front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and weak infrastructure spending [2]. - Financial situation at the end of October: Social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance remained strong, and corporate and household financing demand was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, reflecting weak business vitality in the real economy and the return of current deposits to time deposits. Long - term bonds faced upward pressure, and the yield curve steepened [2]. - On December 8, 2025, the central bank conducted a 122.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Main repurchase rates: 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.302%, 1.426%, 1.517%, and 1.521% respectively, and repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific analysis content provided other than figure references. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than figure references. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than figure references. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than figure references. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than figure references. 4. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].