到港压力仍大，关注MTO动态

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The port inventory has slightly declined from a high level, but the short - term arrival pressure remains high, with the import pressure in December expected to be the highest of the year. Although Iranian plants have undergone winter maintenance, it will take time for the decline in future arrivals to be reflected. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude's MTO is implemented. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period in previous years. Regarding MTO, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Yangmei's MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi's MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream start - up rate has slightly rebounded, with acetic acid start - up remaining at a low level, formaldehyde start - up slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE start - up remaining at a high level [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various basis and inter - period spread charts, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of different regions' spot prices relative to the main futures contract, and spreads between different futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [7][11][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads, such as Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, and FOB US Gulf - CFR China [27][28][34] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes charts on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated plants) [36][37][39] 4. Regional Spreads - It presents charts of regional spreads, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, and other regional spread indicators [41][49][54] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of traditional downstream production profits, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [50][53][58] Market News and Key Data - Inland: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 590 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton). Inner Mongolia's northern line methanol price is 1995 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton), with a basis of 506 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton); the southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2230 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of 341 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2110 yuan/ton (- 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 221 yuan/ton (- 47 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2175 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 346 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 361,320 tons (- 12,392 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 205,000 tons (- 4,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 239,715 tons (+ 9,005 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 128,500 tons (+ 15,000 tons) [1] - Port: Taicang methanol is 2080 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 9 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton), CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is - 12 yuan/ton (+ 7 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2325 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 14 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton). Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,349,430 tons (- 14,070 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 703,300 tons (- 44,700 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 235,500 tons (+ 46,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 252,000 tons (- 6,500 tons); the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82% (+ 0.89%) [2] - Regional Spreads: The Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 55 yuan/ton (+ 33 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 465 yuan/ton (+ 8 yuan/ton), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 400 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is 50 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [4]