需求延续偏弱,盘面震荡走弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-09 03:04
  1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand in the polyolefin market continues to be weak, and the market is oscillating weakly. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in the start - up rate and the approaching of the demand off - season, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, with inventory accumulating and the demand side lacking follow - up [1][2][3]. - The recommended strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - side trading, with the market expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread on the L01 - 05 contract when the price is high. For inter - variety trading, narrow the L - P price spread when it is high [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6643元/吨(-31),PP主力合约收盘价为6275元/吨(-12);LL华北现货为6620元/吨(-40),LL华东现货为6750元/吨(-60),PP华东现货为6310元/吨(-40);LL华北基差为 - 23元/吨(-9),LL华东基差为107元/吨(-29),PP华东基差为35元/吨(-28) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%(-0.5%),PP开工率为77.6%(-0.5%);PE油制生产利润为202.2元/吨(-107.2),PP油制生产利润为 - 497.8元/吨(-107.2),PDH制PP生产利润为 - 568.5元/吨(+0.0) [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data summary provided for this section in the given content. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为59.3元/吨(-70.0),PP进口利润为 - 273.0元/吨(+0.0),PP出口利润为 - 22.4美元/吨(+0.0) [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%(-0.9%),PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%(-0.5%),PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%(+0.0%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%(+0.0%) [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, the social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the absolute inventory level was relatively high compared to the same period. The LLDPE social inventory also increased further during the week. For PP, the inventory continued to accumulate [2][3]