哈尔斯（002615）：保温杯制造龙头，制造+客户壁垒深厚，盈利水平有望逐渐恢复

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of thermal cups, primarily engaged in OEM production while simultaneously developing its own brands [1][13] - The global cup market is expected to reach USD 4.8 billion by 2025, indicating stable growth driven by consumer trends towards emotional value and lifestyle products [2] - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients and is expanding its overseas production capacity to mitigate tariff risks and enhance order fulfillment [3] Company Overview - The company was founded in 1985 and specializes in stainless steel vacuum thermal vessels, glass cups, aluminum bottles, and plastic cups, with over 80% of its revenue coming from thermal cups [1][13] - The sales model includes both OEM and self-branded products, with the latter including the domestic brand "Haers" and the Swiss brand "SIGG" acquired in 2016 [1][13] Industry Analysis - The thermal cup industry is experiencing structural upgrades and stable growth, with China being a core supplier [2] - The market is characterized by a shift from traditional durable goods to fast-moving consumer goods and fashion items, broadening the market boundaries [2] Competitive Advantage - The company has a well-established supply chain both domestically and internationally, benefiting from deep partnerships with leading brands like YETI and PMI [3] - The overseas production facilities in Thailand are in a rapid ramp-up phase, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures and enhance delivery stability to key clients [3] - The company is focusing on dual-brand development and multi-channel growth strategies, with significant upgrades to the Haers brand and successful operations of SIGG [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 142 million, CNY 292 million, and CNY 371 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.30, CNY 0.63, and CNY 0.80 [4] - The report assigns a target price of CNY 10.01 based on a P/E ratio of 16x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong manufacturing capabilities and customer barriers [4]