新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-9）-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "weak" or "weak and volatile"; rebar is in a "volatile state". [2] - Financial Sector: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "volatile"; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; the 10 - year treasury bond is rated as "downward". [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "strong and volatile"; logs are rated as "bottoming out and volatile". [4] - Light Industry: Pulp, double - offset paper, and logs are rated as "volatile"; paper pulp is rated as "volatile and returning". [7] - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are rated as "weak and volatile". [7][8] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are rated as "weak". [8] - Soft Commodities: Rubber is rated as "weak and volatile". [10] - Polyester: PX is rated as "widely volatile"; PTA is rated as "volatile"; MEG is rated as "weakly volatile"; PR and PF are rated as "wait - and - see". [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main line of the iron ore market in 2026 is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory build - up". With new global mine production increasing and real - time demand weak, prices are expected to be weak and volatile. For coal coke, there are pressures on supply and expectations of price cuts, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - volatile state, and the key to price stabilization lies in production cuts and anti - "involution" policies. [2] - The central government's economic work plan for 2026 emphasizes a series of policies, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The high - tech industry is growing, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield shows a downward trend. [3] - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The short - term impact comes from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. [4] - Logs' demand improvement needs further observation, and the pulp market's supply and demand are in a re - balancing process. The price trends of various paper products are mainly volatile. [7] - The demand outlook for oils and fats is uncertain, with supply remaining abundant. The price of soybean meal and related products is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as US soybean supply and South American weather. [7][8] - The pig market has a stable supply, but terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. [8] - The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The polyester market has different trends for different products, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing, plate inventory is high, and steel mill maintenance is expected to increase. Although macro - sentiment may warm up, real improvement depends on the peak season next year. After the stock - replenishment and sentiment boost, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. [2] - Coal Coke: Some coke enterprises have turned profitable, but steel mills are still in the red. November's Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high, and there is supply pressure. The first round of coke price cuts in December has landed, and there are still expectations for further cuts. However, there is support at the bottom due to downstream stock - replenishment demand and coal production reduction expectations. [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Steel demand is weak, and the winter stock - replenishment has not started. The key to steel price stabilization is whether the production cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 can exceed 5% and the implementation of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in a bottom - volatile state. [2] - Glass: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still higher than the same period last year. The key to price stabilization lies in cold - repair progress and macro - factors. [2][3] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: The central government emphasizes a series of economic policies for 2026. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the high - tech industry is growing. The performance of different stock indexes varies, and some sectors show capital inflows or outflows. [3] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond is flat, and the market shows a small - amplitude rebound. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the net investment is positive. [3] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases being the key. Factors such as the US debt problem, high - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors. The market has a high expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. [4] - Logs: The daily shipment volume at ports has increased, but the demand improvement needs further observation. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the expected arrival volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot market price is stable. [4] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp price increasing. However, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to return to a volatile state. [7] - Double - Offset Paper: The spot market price is stable, the supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders help with sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and the price is expected to remain volatile. [7] Oils and Fats - Oils: The demand for US soybean crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October exceeded expectations, and exports in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and demand from the catering industry is weak. With cost support, the price is expected to be range - bound. [7] - Meals: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. Brazilian soybeans have an advantage in export price. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and demand from the breeding industry is cautious. The price is expected to be weak and volatile. [7][8] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend. The terminal demand growth is limited, and the settlement price may decline further. The slaughtering rate has increased, but the profit of self - breeding and self - raising has decreased, and that of piglet fattening has increased. The overall price is expected to decline. [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand support is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. [10] Polyester - PX: With the resumption of oil production in Iraq, oil prices have declined. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and the PXN spread is temporarily stable. The price is widely volatile. [10] - PTA: The cost side is unstable due to oil price fluctuations. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, the industry will weaken seasonally, and the price is expected to follow the cost side. [10] - MEG: There is still long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. The price is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is weakening. [10] - PR and PF: The polyester bottle - chip market is expected to be weak due to low oil prices and weak terminal demand. The short - fiber market price may be weakly sorted due to low prices, weak demand, and weakening cost support. [10]