宏观研究：如何理解与观测中国宏观政策目标？

Group 1: Macro Policy Goals - The nine governance goals centered on high-quality development have replaced the single GDP indicator, guiding China's economic stability and modernization efforts[1] - The macro policy framework emphasizes quality and efficiency over mere quantity and speed, with specific monitoring indicators like R&D intensity and total factor productivity[1] - The shift marks a departure from reliance on real estate and debt-driven growth, focusing instead on reform and innovation to enhance endogenous momentum[1] Group 2: Development and Security - The combination of development and security forms the core of macro governance, with both elements being interdependent and essential for sustainable growth[3] - The central government has elevated the relationship between development and security to a symbiotic one, ensuring that economic growth is grounded in food, energy, financial, and industrial chain security[3] - Macro governance aims to prevent systemic risks by embedding "safety" into the economic growth function, making any growth detached from safety unsustainable[3] Group 3: Structural Reforms and Economic Stability - The dual strategy of "reform + counter-cyclical adjustment" is essential for addressing long-term structural challenges and short-term economic fluctuations[4] - Policies are designed to gradually detach from real estate and debt expansion, which have historically acted as growth engines, and instead focus on resolving structural constraints[4] - Counter-cyclical adjustments will continue to be key in stabilizing short-term fluctuations while ensuring long-term market-oriented reforms and transitions between old and new growth drivers[4] Group 4: High-Quality Development Metrics - High-quality development prioritizes effective quality improvements and reasonable growth rates, with a focus on enhancing total factor productivity (TFP) and optimizing demand structure[31] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth reached 82.5% in 2023, indicating a significant shift towards domestic demand as the main growth driver[35] - R&D expenditure has increased from CNY 1 trillion in 2012 to CNY 3.09 trillion in 2022, with its share of GDP rising from 1.91% to 2.55%, reflecting a commitment to innovation[35]