国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and analyses on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, market dynamics, and suggestions for each product. It also mentions the trend strength of each futures product, which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs a. Aromatics and Polyester Chain - PX: Unilateral oscillation. PXN continues to expand. Do not chase high in the short - term, go long on dips. 5 - 9 positive spread. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is a certain supply gap under high polyester operation [12]. - PTA: Unilateral high - level oscillation. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract. There may be an opportunity for PTA processing fee expansion if there are certain PX warehouse receipts in the 01 contract [12]. - MEG: Price hits a new low, with a weak trend. Go short on the 5 - 9 spread at high levels. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in the medium term [13][14]. b. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: Oscillating. Market is affected by inventory and supply factors. The increase in Qingdao inventory slows down, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize [15][18]. - Synthetic Rubber: Range - bound. Fundamental pressure exists, but valuation provides support. Raw materials are expected to oscillate [19][22]. c. Asphalt - Asphalt: Weak oscillation. Production increases slightly this week, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases. The market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [23][30]. d. Plastics - LLDPE: Basis weakens, and upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The market is affected by raw materials, supply, and demand. Pay attention to the supply - demand pressure in the medium term [31][32]. - PP: Medium - term trend still faces pressure. Supply is relatively high, and demand peaks have passed. Short - term market should not be chased short, but the downward pressure remains [33][34]. e. Others - Caustic Soda: Trend still faces pressure. High production and inventory persist, and demand is weak. Supply pressure is large in winter, and cost support is limited [37][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating. The market shows narrow - range consolidation and differentiation between futures and spot. The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and high inventory and weak demand [42][46]. - Glass: Flat glass prices are stable. Supply eases slightly, but rigid demand is still weak [47][48]. - Methanol: Under pressure. Short - term weak operation, medium - term high supply pressure on the 01 contract. There is a possibility of marginal improvement in the first quarter of 2026 [50][53]. - Urea: Weak operation. Warehouse receipts increase significantly. Fundamental drivers are neutral, and there are policy and cost support and pressure [55][57]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation. Pure benzene market oscillates, and styrene supply pressure is not large, with port inventory slightly decreasing [58][59]. - Soda Ash: Spot market changes little. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is average [61][62]. - LPG: Short - term demand is strong, but medium - and long - term is under pressure. Propylene supply is expected to increase, and upward driving force is limited [64]. - PVC: Trend is weak. Supply is high, demand is weak, and short - term should not be chased short. There is a possibility of supply reduction in the future [72]. - Fuel Oil: Continues to rebound and may temporarily get out of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [75]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Oscillating. Affected by negotiation and freight factors, the 2602 contract is an oscillating market in the medium term, and the 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling [87][88]. - Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip: Medium - term pressure exists. Short - sell the processing fee at high levels [90][91]. - Offset Printing Paper: Wait - and - see. Market prices are stable, demand is weak, and industry operation is at a high level [93][96]. - Pure Benzene: Short - term oscillation. Weak current situation but strong future expectations. Inventory pressure is high in December, and supply is expected to contract after January [98][99].