原油日报：卢克石油西库尔纳油田复产，俄油到货恢复-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently in a chaotic phase where Russian oil buyers need to balance compliance risks and discount benefits, and the number of floating storage tanks for Russian oil is an important indicator to watch [2]. - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. The strategy is to go long on diesel cracks (event - driven) in the short term and hold a short - position in the medium term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI January crude oil futures fell $1.20, a nearly 2.00% drop, to settle at $58.88 per barrel. Brent February crude oil futures dropped $1.26, a 1.98% decline, to $62.49 per barrel [1]. - The crude oil transportation from the West Qurna - 2 oilfield of Lukoil has resumed, and the site is expected to return to normal operations between 1:00 and 2:00 am. The repair of the damaged part of the oil pipeline at the West Qurna - 2 oilfield was completed around 7:30 pm local time [1]. - On December 8, Ukrainian President Zelensky held over two - hour talks with UK Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz at the UK Prime Minister's residence. The four leaders discussed a draft of the latest peace plan to end the Ukraine crisis [1]. - The US White House stated that the national average price of regular gasoline is at its lowest level in 1681 days. GasBuddy data shows that the average gasoline price in 37 states has fallen below $3 per gallon, 22 states below $2.75 per gallon, and 5 states below $2.50 per gallon [1]. Investment Logic - The recent arrival of Russian crude oil in Turkey has returned to 400,000 barrels per day, indicating that buyers may have sourced Russian oil from non - sanctioned entities. The Indian state - owned company BPCL has also resumed purchases, but the discount on Russian oil continues to decline [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Go long on diesel cracks (event - driven). - Medium - term: Hold a short - position [3]. Risk - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production; a macro black - swan event occurs [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens; large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3].