ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-12-09 04:53Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Views - In November 2025, total excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with domestic sales up by 9% and exports up by 19% [2][3] - The total excavator sales from January to November 2025 amounted to 212,162 units, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales increasing by 19% and exports by 15% [2] - Loader sales in November 2025 totaled 11,419 units, marking a 32.1% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales rising by 29.4% and exports by 34.8% [3] - The recovery of the engineering machinery industry is characterized by three phases: increasing export market share, improving domestic demand, and the initiation of a replacement cycle [3][4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - November 2025 excavator sales were 20,027 units, up 14% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.1%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [2][3] - From January to November 2025, total excavator sales reached 212,162 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 19%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 15%) [2] Loader Sales - November 2025 loader sales were 11,419 units, a 32.1% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 5,671 units (up 29.4%) and exports at 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [3] - From January to November 2025, total loader sales reached 115,831 units, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 61,039 units (up 22.5%) and exports at 54,792 units (up 11.9%) [3] Market Dynamics - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing an increase in overseas market share, driven by the "Belt and Road" initiative and domestic demand for infrastructure and real estate [2][3] - The domestic replacement cycle is expected to gradually initiate, with projections indicating that 2025 will mark the start of this cycle, benefiting from demand in agriculture, forestry, and municipal projects [4][5] Company Developments - Major engineering machinery manufacturers are planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will enhance their international brand influence and provide efficient financing channels [5] - Sany Heavy Industry's recent H-share listing raised approximately 13.3 billion HKD, indicating strong market interest [5]