高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应预期波动

1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by refinery device changes. The supply incremental is less than expected due to the delay and shortening of the Dangote refinery's gasoline device maintenance plan. The Al - Zour refinery's device delay provides support. The supply gap disturbance from South Sudan has subsided. Demand for winter power generation lacks a driver, and attention should be paid to winter temperatures and natural gas conditions in Europe and East Asia [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot window transaction price continues to decline, and the spot premium remains at a low level. It is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend in the fourth quarter. Russian exports are slightly affected by attacks, and Mexican exports have increased recently. The feed demand for fuel oil is expected to weaken due to the upcoming issuance of new crude oil quotas [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Low - sulfur: Monitor the impact of refinery device changes on supply. The winter power - generation demand has no driver yet, and focus on winter temperatures and natural gas in Europe and East Asia. The supply reduction in the Pan - Singapore region is less than expected [4]. - High - sulfur: The spot price is weak, and the fourth - quarter outlook is stable and bearish. Russian exports are slightly affected, and Mexican exports are rising. The feed demand for fuel oil is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, not advisable to buy at low levels [5]. - Arbitrage: High - sulfur cracking fluctuates at a low level, and low - sulfur cracking is neutral [5]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: Energy facilities have recovered, and the overall refining capacity has increased. November exports increased by 17% month - on - month, and December exports are expected to rise [8][9]. - Mexico: Pemex's processing volume increased in October, and November exports were stable. High - sulfur supply is expected to decline marginally in the future [15]. - Middle East: Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil in 2026. November exports decreased slightly from the October high. Sanctions on Iran continue [17]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feed demand: New crude oil quotas are expected to be issued in November 2026, with a significant increase compared to the end of last year. Feed demand for fuel oil is expected to weaken [4]. - Marine fuel demand: Supported by the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships [26]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Pan - Singapore region: The expected excess supply is gradually decreasing as RFCC device operations increase [29]. - Nigeria: Supply is affected by the frequent changes in the Dangote refinery's maintenance time [32]. - Middle East: Device return times are all delayed, and the supply gap persists in the short term [35]. - Sudan: Energy facilities were attacked, and oil supply has recovered. Low - sulfur crude oil has been redirected to the Pan - Singapore region [38]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driver. Marine fuel demand is stable, and power - generation is less economical than natural gas [40]. 3.2.5 China's Low - Sulfur Market - The export quota for bonded low - sulfur fuel oil in the fourth quarter is tight. The production in October increased, with different trends among different refineries [45]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: The document provides price trends of Brent, HSFO380, LSFO, and their spreads with other products [49][50][53]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Include cross - region and cross - period spreads [56]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Include cross - region and cross - variety spreads [63]. - Natural gas - fuel oil ratio: Provides equivalent - calorific - value price data and changes [66]. - Cross - region freight: Shows freight trends between different regions [69]. - Singapore bunkering spreads: Presents spreads of HSFO and LSFO in Singapore [72]. - Fuel oil inventory: Covers inventory structures in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US [75]. - Northwest Europe inventory: Includes gasoline, diesel, and refined - oil inventories in ARA [82]. - US Gulf inventory: Covers gasoline, diesel, crude - oil, and Cushing crude - oil inventories in the US [85].