日度策略参考-20251209

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].