光大期货能化商品日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil is under pressure due to increased supply, and other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC also face different supply - demand situations leading to expected price oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: The price center of oil dropped on Monday. The production at Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field is resuming, and the CPC pipeline in Kazakhstan has supply disruptions. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, with a cumulative 1 - 11 - month import of 521.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - sulfur market is also affected by factors such as sufficient arrivals and high inventories. Prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate [3]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract rose slightly on Monday. The winter - storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and the winter - storage price is likely to fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - Polyester: The main contracts of TA, EG, and PX had different price changes on Monday. The production and demand of polyester products are affected by factors such as device maintenance and downstream demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate [3][4]. - Rubber: The prices of main rubber contracts rose on Monday. China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased in November. Overseas production areas have improved weather, and demand is insufficient, dragging down futures prices [4]. - Methanol: The supply of methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and overseas supply is expected to decline. Demand is expected to increase. The port inventory is expected to start to decline from late December 2025 to early January 2026, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - Polyolefin: The production of polyolefin will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6][8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The price of PVC in the East, North, and South China markets decreased on Monday. Supply may decline slightly, and demand will slow down. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on December 8, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iraq has resumed production at the West Qurna 2 oil field, which accounts for about 0.5% of global oil supply and 9% of Iraq's total production, and is expected to fully resume operations in the next few hours [11]. - China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 521.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [13][14][15][19][21][23][27][28]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][35][36][39][40][41]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][54][56][58]. - 4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads: The report provides the spread and ratio charts of different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low - sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [60][62][64][70]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67].