集运日报：SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has a slight increase, and the main contract fluctuates upward. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate shows no obvious fluctuations [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a small position or wait and see [3]. - After the decline of optimistic sentiment and intense long - short game, SCFIS rises slightly, and the closing prices on the market show mixed trends. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6) [2]. - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. Main Contract Information - On December 8, the main contract 2602 closed at 1615.3, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 19,300 lots and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 749 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a decline, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to take a small - position trial long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position try [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [4]. - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 7, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement was basically completed. Israel would ensure the return of the remains of the last detainee and promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire, aiming at the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Hamas member Basem Naim said that Hamas still adhered to the "right to resist" but was willing to discuss disarmament within the framework of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state and proposed long - term cease - fire negotiations of 5 to 10 years [5].