黑色商品日报-20251209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation. Although steel exports are at a high level and macro - policies have a positive impact, the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the market [1]. - Iron ore: Volatility. The supply from Australia is rising while that from Brazil is falling, iron - water production is decreasing, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Coking coal: Weak volatility. The supply increase is limited, the actual market demand is insufficient, and the downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Coke: Weak volatility. The coke output is increasing, and the terminal consumption demand is average, with the impact of weather on transportation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Volatility. The cost is high, production is decreasing, demand is to be boosted, and inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatility. The cost is high, supply reduction is limited, and the market expectation is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (1.08% decline), and the position increased by 0.3 million hands. Spot prices declined slightly. In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. The cumulative export from January to November was 10771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [1]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (1.1% decline). Australian shipments rebounded, Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased, and inventories increased [1]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (4.08% decline), and the position increased by 24153 hands. The supply increase was limited, and the actual market demand was insufficient [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1537 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (3.03% decline), and the position increased by 1550 hands. The coke output increased, and the terminal consumption demand was average [1]. - Manganese silicon: The main contract price of manganese silicon was 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The production cost was high, the weekly output decreased by 3.5% for 5 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises reached a new high [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5444 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. After the electricity price adjustment in November, the production reduction intention increased. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 6.0, and the 5 - 10 month spread was - 41.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the rebar 01 contract was 163.0, and that of the 05 contract was 157.0 [4]. - Spot: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3280.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Profit and spreads: The rebar's on - disk profit was 27.0, and the long - process profit was - 29.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 168.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main contract basis: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - period contract spreads: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - Inter - variety contract spreads: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][45]. - Rebar profit: There are profit trend charts of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director and Black Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - spot trading [55].