Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the market remained cautious. Although a December rate cut has reached a consensus, the future rate - cut path and how the Fed replenishes market liquidity are the focus. With the LME inventory problem hard to solve, the market sentiment may keep copper prices high and even make them continue to strengthen, so a prudent and optimistic outlook is held [1]. - Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and ore supply increased. Alumina supply remained high, and inventory pressure continued to build. Affected by macro - sentiment and copper prices, aluminum followed the upward trend and hit a new high. The end - of - year demand did not decline significantly, and the seasonal pressure on aluminum ingot shipments in Xinjiang helped extend the destocking cycle. Currently, the upward strength of aluminum prices is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the raw - material support strengthened marginally, but the price upside was limited. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply was tight, but the output of ternary precursors decreased in December, and the finished - product side was under pressure. In the short term, nickel may still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial - policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Copper: Macro factors include the Fed's rate - policy stance and China's economic - policy orientation. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 164,550 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,410 tons to 398,720 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. The market is cautious before the Fed's meeting, but LME inventory issues may support high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,574 yuan per ton, down 0.27%, and AL2601 closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, down 0.11%. AD2601 closed at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,809 yuan per ton, and the aluminum - ingot spot discount widened. After the end of environmental inspections, ore supply increased, and alumina supply remained high. Aluminum prices followed the upward trend but may face downward pressure [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 228 tons to 253,344 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 264 tons to 34,500 tons. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the new - energy industry chain faced some pressure. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 710 yuan per ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 45 yuan per ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons, and the total domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,310 yuan per ton, and the 1 lead - ingot premium in East China increased by 5 yuan per ton. The price of lead concentrates at some locations increased by 100 yuan per ton. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 547 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased by 10 yuan per ton. The aluminum - alloy ADC12 price in South China increased by 200 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and the total SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 8,439 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 425 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,501 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.4% to 22,840 yuan per ton. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 0.36 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [7]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price increased by 2.9% to 318,380 yuan per ton. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540 per ton. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12] - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][18] - 3.3 LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24] - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - 3.5 Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36] - 3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts present the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [47].
有色商品日报-20251209
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-09 06:43