光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 1.76% to 94,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 90,350 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 81,930 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,198 tons to 13,120 tons [2]. - Nigerian media reported that on December 1, the governors of northern Nigerian states and traditional leaders held a joint meeting and decided to promote a six - month suspension of mining activities in the region [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons. In December, the lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 564 tons to 18,697 tons, and the inventory decreased by 519 tons to 18,842 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 233 tons to 95,480 tons, and the inventory decreased by 660 tons to 22.35 GWh. In December, the ternary material production is expected to decrease by 7% month - on - month to 78,280 tons, and the lithium iron phosphate production is expected to decline by 1% month - on - month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,336 tons to 113,602 tons [2]. - Last week, the social inventory continued to decline. However, due to the marginal weakening of demand, the total inventory days slightly increased to 27 days. Short - term news - related disturbances have led to stronger prices, but the potential supply increment has not been released, the inventory - reduction rhythm may face pressure to slow down, and the bullish factors may be marginally weakening. There is still a certain probability of a price correction [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 92,800 yuan/ton, up 2,120 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,165 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the prices of different grades of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased. - Lithium carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 90,350 yuan/ton. - Lithium hydroxide: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide mostly decreased. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 173,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate products decreased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), different grades of lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12]. - Spreads: Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - Precursors & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 17, 2025, to December 4, 2025 [36][37][38]. - Production cost: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].