国际宏观资讯双周报-20251209

Economic Insights - UAE's non-oil GDP grew by 5.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.5% to the total GDP, with a projected actual GDP growth of 4.2%[15] - GCC's economic scale is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2024, with non-oil economy accounting for 76% of GDP and a trade surplus of $109.7 billion[16] - Iran's non-oil trade volume reached $76.54 billion in the first eight months, a 9.4% year-on-year decline, with exports at $37 billion and imports at $39.54 billion[29] Political Developments - European leaders, including French President Macron, visited China to enhance economic cooperation amid pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Germany and the UK planning similar visits[11] - Bangladesh's new political party faces challenges ahead of the February elections, with a current support rate of only 6%[26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - S&P upgraded Azerbaijan's credit outlook to positive, maintaining a BB+ rating, reflecting reduced conflict risks and strong fiscal buffers[39] - Moody's upgraded Laos' credit rating from Caa3 to Caa2, citing improved external financing and stable macroeconomic conditions[40] - Fitch upgraded Oman's credit rating from BB+ to BBB-, indicating improved public and external asset positions[42] Inflation and Fiscal Policies - Iran's national debt yield surpassed 40%, with tax revenue reaching its highest GDP ratio in nearly seven years, indicating fiscal pressures[21][22] - UAE announced new VAT regulations effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing compliance and administrative efficiency[24] - Saudi Arabia's 2026 budget anticipates a fiscal deficit of $44 billion, approximately 3.3% of GDP, with total expenditures projected at $348 billion[25]