基本面有所改善，铅价企稳回升：有色金属周报-铅-20251209

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Lead" and dated December 9, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead have improved, and lead prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic lead ingot supply has tightened regionally, downstream consumption has improved, and with a positive macro - mood, lead prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. The market is mainly dominated by long - term order purchases, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude towards spot orders. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure brought by delivery and position transfer, and be wary of lead prices rising and then falling [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 1.18% week - on - week to 17,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 1.17% to 17,290 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.41% to 2,009 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lead Concentrate - Processing Fees: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrate is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend [30] - Smelter Profits: As of November 28, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton [30] 2.2 Primary Lead - Operating Rate: The primary lead operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 65.92%. There are still some smelters with maintenance plans in the future, and it is expected that the primary lead operating rate will not increase significantly [31] - Production and Maintenance: The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of December 5 was 46,560 tons, and it is expected to be 46,710 tons this week. Some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production after maintenance, while some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi had regular maintenance [36] 2.3 Recycled Lead - Scrap Battery Prices: As of December 5, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The scrap battery supply has tightened, and prices are expected to have limited decline [45] - Smelter Profits: As of December 5, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 363 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 155 yuan/ton. Profits have improved, but attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price increases on profits [50] - Inventory and Operating Rate: As of December 4, recycled lead raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory was 1,480 tons and continued to decline. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.4%. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia may stop production due to raw material shortages, which may drive a significant decline in the local operating rate [53][56] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - Lead - Acid Battery Operating Rate: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 1.07 percentage points to 74.46%. Some large enterprises have improved their production enthusiasm, and the consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries has improved in December, driving the operating rate to rise [64] 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of November 28, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of December 5, the import profit was 157.21 yuan/ton, and the import profit window has opened [77] 5. Inventory Analysis - Lead Ingot Inventory: As of December 4, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 2.36 million tons, showing a decline; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 11,850 tons, a week - on - week increase. The social inventory decreased while the factory inventory increased [88] - Exchange Inventory: As of December 5, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 34,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease; as of December 4, the LME inventory was 243,550 tons, also showing a decrease [93] - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94]