“猪油”共振的可能性推：2025年财政政策执行情况回顾

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - 2025 marks a critical turning point as broad fiscal budget expenditures return to an expansionary cycle, with significant adjustments made to increase fiscal resources while lowering revenue targets[6] - The broad fiscal deficit rate in 2025 reaches 8.4%, surpassing the historical high of 8.1% set in 2020[7] - The proportion of total fiscal expenditure to GDP has rebounded for the first time since 2020, indicating the start of a new expenditure expansion cycle[15] Group 2: Social Spending and Impact - Actual spending on social welfare areas reached a record high in recent years, with 1-10 months' social-related expenditure accounting for 40.6% of total spending, the highest in five years[20] - In the 2025 budget, education spending accounts for 15.0%, social security and employment for 14.8%, and health spending for 7.2%, reflecting a slight increase in focus on social welfare[19] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Revenue - Local government revenue has achieved positive growth for the second consecutive year, with a 2.1% increase in local fiscal revenue despite a decline in non-tax revenue growth[30] - Debt resolution policies have significantly reduced local government debt burdens, with early repayment of high-interest debts reaching 24.48 billion yuan, the highest in recent years[33] Group 4: Investment Support and Challenges - Fiscal support for investment has weakened compared to 2024, with infrastructure-related spending growth remaining low and focused primarily on social welfare[38] - The issuance of special bonds has slowed in the second half of 2025, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, compared to 4.0 trillion yuan in the same period last year[39] Group 5: Execution and Policy Implementation - The pace of fiscal spending has slowed, with the budget execution rate in 2025 being lower than in previous years, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal policy execution[44] - Key policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as pension increases and birth subsidies, have been delayed, limiting their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth[52]