西南期货早间评论-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under some pressure and should be treated with caution [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling and long - buying opportunities respectively [12][14][17]. - The overall surplus of ferroalloys has eased, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [19][20]. - The crude oil price is supported, and the fuel oil price is also affected by positive factors. Both are currently on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][25]. - The demand for polyolefins has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate, and natural rubber can be considered for long - entry opportunities [29][30][32]. - PVC should focus on supply - side changes, and urea's downward space is limited [33][34][36]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate, ethylene glycol is under pressure, short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [37][38][39][41][42][43]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. - Copper, aluminum, and zinc are expected to be strong in the short term, lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and tin is expected to fluctuate strongly [46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate, and soybean oil and soybean meal can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [56][59]. - Palm oil can consider long - entry on pullbacks, and rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are on a wait - and - see basis [60][61][63]. - The upward space of cotton is limited, sugar is expected to fluctuate, apples are expected to be strong, and the short - term trend of live pigs should pay attention to the supply and consumption changes. Eggs are on a wait - and - see basis, and corn and corn starch can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options [64][65][67][68][70][72][76][80]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank carried out 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 14.7 billion yuan. Due to the low treasury bond yield, stable economic recovery, rising core inflation, and increased market risk appetite, treasury bond futures are under pressure [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The complex global environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly pulled back. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is declining, the market will enter the off - season, the supply capacity is surplus, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to be weak. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend, and investors can short on rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly fell. The national hot - metal daily output has declined, the import volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, and the market supply - demand pattern is weak. The futures may continue to pull back, and investors can short at high levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The first - round price reduction of coke has been implemented, and the demand may weaken. The futures are still in a weak state, and investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The manganese ore supply has changed, the cost is rising, the output is falling, the demand is weak, and the overall surplus is easing. After the price pull - back, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot losses expand [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela. The reduction of net short positions by US funds and geopolitical factors support the oil price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose sharply. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the strengthening of the cost - end crude oil are beneficial to the price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [24][25][26]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou declined in some parts, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The demand for polypropylene products has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the supply - side device changes and the demand - side recovery [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed trends. The supply and demand have changed, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes after the festival [33][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand of downstream products has changed, the profit has improved, and the downward space is limited [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PX load has slightly decreased, the import has decreased, and the short - term price may fluctuate and adjust. Pay attention to the crude oil changes and macro - policies [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply and demand have changed little, the processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the oil price [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is accumulating, the demand support is limited, and it is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate. Pay attention to the cost and macro - policies [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, the export growth has slowed down, and it is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell slightly. The macro - economic data in the US is not as expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts. The copper supply is expected to tighten, the consumption is weak, and the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, but beware of pull - backs [46][47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell slightly. The alumina supply is in surplus, the electrolytic aluminum supply increment is limited, the consumption enters the off - season, and the price is expected to be strong before the situation changes [48][49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen, the supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [51][52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell slightly. The lead concentrate processing fee has fallen, the production enthusiasm of smelters may be affected, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is relatively high, and the price is expected to fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal main contracts fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is basically completed, the supply pressure exists, the inventory is high, the demand has a certain improvement, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price fell. The Chinese import of US soybeans is uncertain, the Indonesian policy may change, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level. It can be considered to go long on pullbacks [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Canadian rapeseed production has increased, the domestic import of rapeseed - related products has changed, the inventory of rapeseed meal has increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased. It is on a wait - and - see basis [62][63]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton prices showed different trends. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, and the domestic cotton is in a bumper harvest, with weak demand and limited upward space [64][65][66]. Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar prices rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is in the off - season, the Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import is expected to be high. The price is expected to fluctuate [67][68][69]. Apples - The domestic apple futures fell. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, the production has decreased, and the price is expected to be strong [70][71]. Live Pigs - The live pig price has changed regionally. The supply and demand situation has changed, and investors should pay attention to the supply of farms and the consumption changes after the temperature drop. Consider closing the remaining short positions [72][73]. Eggs - The egg price has changed slightly. The egg supply is at a high level, but the supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. It is on a wait - and - see basis [74][75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn and corn starch main contracts fell. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is difficult, the supply pressure exists, the import may increase in the future, the demand has a slight increase, and investors can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options. Corn starch may follow the corn trend [77][78][80].