南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告：东南亚产区洪涝影响有所消退，整体雨水环比减少

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the impact of weather on natural rubber production in major global producing areas, with a particular emphasis on rainfall. It provides detailed weather forecasts and rainfall data for various regions, highlighting how weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events can affect rubber tree growth, tapping progress, and overall production [2][203]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - China: Yunnan is in the pre - stop - tapping transition, with low temperatures and a coming cold snap that may affect production. Hainan is in the pre - stop - tapping up - volume stage, with suitable temperatures and reduced rainfall conducive to tapping [2]. - Thailand: Northern and northeastern regions have light rain and smooth tapping. The southern region's flood has eased, but new rainfall is expected [2]. - Vietnam: Rainfall decreased significantly in the coming week after being affected by rain in November [2]. - Other Regions: Different regions such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Asia, and West Africa have their own unique weather conditions and impacts on rubber production [5][6]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides a table of weekly precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas, including current month cumulative precipitation, year - on - year change, last week's cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, and precipitation forecasts for this week and the next week [8][10]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - Tropical low - pressure activity is low in the Northern Hemisphere winter, but there are low - pressure disturbances in western Indonesia and the Indian Ocean, which may bring rainfall [11]. - Floods in southern Thailand and the Malay Peninsula have subsided, but some areas still have high water levels [12]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - China: Detailed precipitation and soil humidity forecasts for Yunnan and Hainan, as well as tracking of various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, and soil humidity anomalies [21][44]. - Indochina Peninsula: Similar to China, it includes precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as tracking of meteorological indicators for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [64][94]. - Malay Archipelago: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, along with tracking of meteorological indicators for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [120][143]. - South Asia: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for India and Sri Lanka [148][170]. - West Africa: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for the Ivory Coast [173][180]. 3.5 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia (about 80%), with Thailand having about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, and Indonesia having about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. The Ivory Coast accounts for over 10% of the output [194]. 3.6 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and pests. Weather affects rubber production in different periods, and different diseases and pests may occur in each stage [203][204]. 3.7 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The opening and closing times of tapping vary by region due to climate differences [205].