东海证券晨会纪要-20251209

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with an increased focus on domestic demand as a strategic priority for the economy in 2026 [5][6][8] - Export resilience is highlighted, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year export growth of 5.9%, reversing a previous decline [12][13] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8, 2025, reiterated the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges, maintaining a focus on economic construction as a core task [5][6] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a general deficit ratio around 4%, with broad deficit levels similar to 2025 [7] - Monetary policy is projected to have room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential interest rate reduction of 10-20 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Growth - The meeting underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic elevation of domestic demand's role in economic growth [8][10] - The focus on consumption is expected to shift towards services, with policies supporting the replacement of old goods to stimulate physical consumption [8][10] Group 3: Export Performance - November 2025 saw exports reach $330.35 billion, marking a historical high for the month, with a significant recovery from previous declines [12][13] - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, there has been notable growth in exports to Africa, the EU, and Japan, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [15][16] - Intermediate goods and capital goods exports are expected to remain strong, supported by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure needs in regions like Africa [12][16]