钢钢钢钢周报：跟着原料起起伏伏-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view on steel products is bullish. The futures market fluctuated and consolidated last week and then declined significantly following raw materials. Hot metal production continued to fall, the output of five finished steel products decreased month - on - month, inventories decreased to varying degrees, and overall demand declined month - on - month, with only cold - rolled products showing a slight increase. Steel mill profits have recovered, mainly due to the decline in coking coal prices on the raw material side. The profits of short - flow steel mills have recovered significantly, mainly benefiting from the decline in scrap steel prices, and their overall production is better than that of long - flow steel mills. Pay attention to the subsequent spot price game and suggest focusing on positions related to steel mill profits [3]. - The month - spread of rebar is bullish. The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar has strengthened slightly month - on - month [3]. - The profitability of steel mills is bullish. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 36.36%, continuing to decline month - on - month [3]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours is 67 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton during off - peak hours is 69 yuan/ton [3]. - The view on finished steel inventories is neutral. The five finished steel products are seasonally destocking [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of December 5, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.323 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,800 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 80.16%, a month - on - month slight decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 53.82%, close to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 36.36%, a month - on - month slight increase, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [14]. - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 828,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,760 tons. Among them, the rebar output was 189,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,770 tons; the hot - rolled coil output was 314,310 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 2,160 tons; the cold - rolled output increased slightly, higher than the level of the same period last year; the medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, significantly higher than the historical average [25]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 864,170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,930 tons, slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The weekly rebar consumption was 216,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,960 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year; the hot - rolled coil consumption was 314,860 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,360 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year [48][49]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading volume in the north decreased month - on - month but was still slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The trading volume in the south decreased slightly month - on - month, and the trading volume in East China increased slightly month - on - month but was still significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [64]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories was 541,600 tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, higher than the level of the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.2054 million tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, significantly higher than the level of the same period [79]. - The rebar warehouse receipts continued to decline but were still higher than the historical average. The hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased slightly month - on - month, lower than the level of the same period last year [117]. 3.4 Balance Sheet The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from June 2025 to June 2026, including data on initial and final steel mill and social inventories, pig iron and crude steel production, imports, exports, total consumption, domestic production - demand differences, surpluses, year - on - year production and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year production and consumption changes [118].