修复后震荡运行

Report Information - Report Title: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] 1. Investment Ratings and Strategies Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see [5][92] - Operating Range: 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][92] Stainless Steel - Strategy: Wait for high - shorting opportunities [6][117] - Operating Range: 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][117] 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation with high inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. Due to the repeated expectations of interest rate cuts, after price recovery, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5][92] Stainless Steel - The cost side has stabilized, but the fundamentals remain weak. Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [6][117] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated within a range, with a weekly increase of 0.54%. The trading volume decreased to 557,300 lots (- 67,400), and the open interest decreased to 117,600 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel increased by 0.95% weekly, and the trading volume increased to 34,700 lots (+ 300) [10] - The basis premium was 2,170 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained unchanged [18] - In October, the export volume of nickel ore from the Philippines rebounded. China's nickel ore imports reached 4.68 million tons in October, a month - on - month decrease of 23.4% and a year - on - year increase of 11.0% [23] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 95,400 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 100,000 wet tons [25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [31] - In October, China imported 905,000 tons of nickel pig iron, a month - on - month decrease of 16.6% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. The import volume is expected to remain stable in November [35] - The loss of RKEF narrowed, and the operating rate decreased. In December, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic and Indonesian nickel pig iron decreased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [37][41][43] Electrolytic Nickel - In December, the operating rate of refined nickel increased, and the production schedule recovered [47] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [51] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [55] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [60][108] - In October, the export volume of stainless steel decreased (month - on - month decrease of 14.4% and year - on - year decrease of 14.2%), and the import volume increased (month - on - month increase of 3.2% and year - on - year decrease of 21.6%). The import and export volumes are expected to decline in November [64][109] New Energy - The price of pure nickel increased, the price of nickel sulfate decreased, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [69] - In December, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate decreased [74][76] - In October, the production volume of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1%; the sales volume was 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [82] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the inventory of SHFE and LME increased. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 1,499 tons [83][88] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased, while the cost from externally purchased nickel sulfate decreased. MHP integrated production of electrolytic nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [91] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The basis widened to 1,070 yuan/ton. The trading volume reached 533,300 lots (- 166,100), and the open interest reached 89,400 lots (- 28,000) [95] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, and the cost side stopped falling [98] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel expanded, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [102] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [60][108] - In October, the export volume of stainless steel decreased, and the import volume increased. Both are expected to decline in November [64][109] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. The inventory of 200 - series increased, while the inventory of 300 - series and 400 - series decreased [115]