Investment Rating - The investment rating for Didi Chuxing is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that intensified competition in both domestic and international markets has pressured profit margins, leading to increased investments for market expansion [2] - The company is expected to continue its investment strategy to capture growth in new markets despite the challenges [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 192.38 billion RMB in 2023 to 271.81 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 502 million RMB in 2023 to a profit of 6.02 billion RMB in 2027 [4] - Adjusted EBITA is expected to rise from -2.08 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.74 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [4] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese business is projected to grow from 5.32 billion RMB in 2023 to 19.56 billion RMB in 2027, with an EBITA margin increasing from 1.97% to 5.00% [4] Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 3.15 and 6.99 USD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 322 million USD [5] - The report maintains a target price of 7.12 USD based on a revised valuation of 234.7 billion RMB, equivalent to approximately 33.16 billion USD [8] Operational Highlights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 58.59 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, while adjusted EBITA was 861 million RMB, down 50.6% year-on-year [8] - The average daily order volume reached 50.92 million, marking a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with the Chinese business contributing significantly to this growth [8] - The international business saw a GTV increase of 31% year-on-year, driven primarily by growth in Mexico and South America, although profitability was impacted by increased competition in Brazil [8]
滴滴出行：2025Q3 业绩点评：海外竞争拖累利润率，货币化能力提升
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-09 08:48