瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, and the export volume is decreasing. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. Technically, the short - selling sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will be adjusted strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spread between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,521 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,872 lots, an increase of 978 lots. The main - contract position is 78,164 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,556 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 12,300 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 219,000 units, a decrease of 43,000 units. The monthly production of excavators is 309,000 units, a decrease of 7,000 units. The monthly production of small tractors is 90,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger - car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. The export in November increased by 52.4%. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the domestic ferronickel plants' raw - material inventory is tightening. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase [2]