瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the cotton (yarn) industry dated December 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the supply of cotton is sufficient with new cotton inspection volume exceeding 460 million tons and high port cotton stocks. The import quota is mostly used up, and the import cotton ports have more outflows than inflows. The inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week as of December 4, reaching 387,600 tons, a 5 - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, the demand shows marginal improvement, but the supply remains loose, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage [2] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 130,375 lots, up 100 lots; main contract cotton position: 478,567 lots, down 10,495 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,749 lots, down 4 lots; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,945 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 422 lots, down 104 lots; main contract cotton yarn position: 17,370 lots, up 1,307 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 12 lots, down 1 lot [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,999 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,843 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,882 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,059 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 22,234 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,801 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; monthly cotton import volume: 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; monthly cotton yarn import volume: 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; import cotton profit: 1,127 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey cloth inventory days: 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; monthly cloth output: 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; monthly yarn output: 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.78%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 6.64%, unchanged [2] Group 5: Industry News - According to the USDA report, in the week ending November 6, 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales increased by 292,100 bales, a 258% increase from the previous week and a 113% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 135,900 bales, a 7% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The ICE cotton futures fell on Monday as traders were cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.25 cents, or 0.39%, at 63.68 cents per pound [2]