Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-09 09:29Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some new urea production units are under maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in domestic urea production. With some short - term equipment failures, the possibility of a decline in capacity utilization is high. Reserve demand has temporarily slowed down due to the rapid increase in urea prices. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased month - on - month, and short - term capacity utilization is expected to show a narrow increase. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume is 3804; the position of the main contract is 150646 lots, down 16428 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5968; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11477 sheets, down 49 sheets [2] 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20, 20, and 30 yuan respectively; in Anhui, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at the main port in China is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, down 4500 tons. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, down 17 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6000330 tons, up 129060 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the start - up rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32100 tons, up 600 tons [2] 5. Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.34 million tons, or 5.38%. As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 10.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons, or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of cargo collection at ports, but the cargo collection rhythm is still slow [2] 6. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]