瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro - policy will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize supply. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are declining, domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging and other sectors showing weakness, but the automotive sector has some policy - supported highlights. Technically, there is price correction with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support at the 23,000 level [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 23,070 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,130.5 dollars/ton, up 32 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 208,468 lots, down 6,432 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 13,905 lots, down 15 lots. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons; the LME inventory is 57,750 tons, up 2,375 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 166.73 dollars/ton, up 3.73 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.325 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.94%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [3] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive policies to boost the economy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with fuel - powered cars dropping 22% and new energy vehicle growth unable to offset the decline, but exports increased by 52.4% [3]