Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-09 09:29Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report expects the Shanghai tin market to undergo oscillatory adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 support. On the macro - front, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. On the fundamental side, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, the production of refined tin is expected to be limited, and the demand from downstream enterprises for high - priced goods is extremely limited. Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, the divergence between long and short positions has increased, and it has fallen below the MA5 support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 312,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,880 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin has a change of - 590 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan. LME 3 - month tin is at 39,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 375 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 43,424 lots, a decrease of 5,047 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 331 lots, an increase of 89 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,075 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, an increase of 506 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,237 tons, a decrease of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 315,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 24 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton with no change; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 202,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.2454 million tons, an increase of 136,100 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 58.9% but the growth rate was only 4.2%, while exports increased by 52.4% [3].