瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the international corn price is suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose global and US corn supply - demand. However, the strong US domestic spot market and good export demand support the price. In the domestic market, Northeast China's increased reserve acquisition supports the market bottom, but some farmers' selling enthusiasm and enterprises' wait - and - see lead to a narrowing of the upward range. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, the price fluctuates narrowly. The corn futures price has fallen from a high recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw material supply and rising industry operating rate. But the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased. Affected by the fall of corn prices, the starch price has also fallen, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2236 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 125832 hands, a decrease of 2066 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 59705 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2522 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 40774 hands, a decrease of 13862 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 337 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 444 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent/bushel. The total position is 1637907 contracts, a decrease of 6343 contracts. The non - commercial net long position is 69481 contracts, a decrease of 13862 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2359.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The CIF price of imported corn is 2146.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area and yield of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine show different figures, with no change in the predicted yield for most regions. The corn inventory in southern ports is 51.7 tons, a decrease of 8.2 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 275.4 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 163 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 105.4 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, an increase of 2 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons, a decrease of 2.02 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 tons, a decrease of 171.7 tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 70.28%, a decrease of 1.06%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, an increase of 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 1.99%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 10.82%, an increase of 0.53%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.27%, a decrease of 2.63% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of December 4, the first - season corn sowing in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is almost over. - In the week ending December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,452,822 tons, lower than the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2].