玉米淀粉日报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with potential future yield cuts but still high production. Import profit for foreign corn is falling. The spot price of corn is relatively strong in the short - term, but the 01 corn contract may continue to decline. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn in mid - to late December and downstream inventory - building [4][6][8]. - The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream inventory. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Due to the relatively strong corn prices, the starch spot price is strong, but corporate profitability is declining. The 01 starch contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2236, down 25 (-1.12%), with a trading volume of 824,523 (-9.80%) and an open interest of 745,751 (-12.16%); C2605 closed at 2266, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 135,803 (-17.09%) and an open interest of 427,740 (-0.36%); C2509 closed at 2278, up 4 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 10,247 (-9.47%) and an open interest of 34,428 (3.96%). For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2522, down 27 (-1.07%), with a trading volume of 162,075 (5.71%) and an open interest of 191,690 (-11.73%); CS2605 closed at 2577, down 10 (-0.39%), with a trading volume of 13,037 (59.32%) and an open interest of 22,351 (25.59%); CS2509 closed at 2615, down 9 (-0.34%), with a trading volume of 194 (-38.22%) and an open interest of 1,214 (-0.49%) [2]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the price in Qinggang is 2075, up 10, with a basis of -203; in Songyuan Jiajie, it's 2190, unchanged, with a basis of -88. Starch spot prices also differ. For instance, Longfeng's price is 2750, up 70, with a basis of 173 [2]. - Spread: Corn inter - delivery spreads and starch inter - delivery spreads as well as cross - variety spreads have different values and changes. For example, C01 - C05 is -30, down 26; CS01 - CS05 is -55, down 17; CS09 - C09 is 337, down 13 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: The US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. Import profit is falling. In China, the northern port's flat - price has declined, while the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China is increasing, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The wheat price in North China is strong, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the downstream feed enterprise inventory is low. The 01 corn contract continues to decline, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is concerned about the selling pressure in mid - to late December and downstream inventory - building [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, and the local corn spot price is strong. The starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on corn prices and downstream inventory. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, but corporate profitability is declining. The 01 starch contract follows the decline of corn, and the North China corn price may decline in December, leading to a potential decline in the starch spot price [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Short - sell 03 corn on rallies with a light position, and wait for opportunities for 05 and 07 corn [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse arbitrage on 3 - 7 corn when the price is high [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations. Two option contracts, C2605 - P - 2240.DCE and C2603 - P - 2200.DCE, are listed with their respective underlying asset prices, closing prices, and other information [11]. 3.5 Related Figures - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][19].