Economic Indicators - In November, the US ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market[1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, below the threshold of 50, indicating contraction, while the services PMI was 52.6, showing slight improvement[10] - Consumer confidence rebounded to 53.3 in December, but remains low, with inflation expectations decreasing from 4.5% to 4.1% for the one-year outlook[10] Market Outlook - The US dollar is expected to face depreciation pressure due to fiscal easing from the OBBBA Act and ongoing interest rate cuts[1] - The potential for a rise in the Japanese yen is noted, as it is currently undervalued against the US dollar, with market concerns about Japan's fiscal situation[2] - Market pricing indicates one more interest rate cut in 2025 and two cuts in 2026, reflecting expectations of a softer monetary policy[23] Risks - If the US economy proves more resilient than expected, stronger employment data could lead to a reassessment of interest rate paths, supporting a stronger dollar[3] - Delays in the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes or renewed fiscal concerns could undermine the logic for yen appreciation[3]
海外宏观周报：美国就业持续走弱-20251209
China Post Securities·2025-12-09 10:03