燃料油日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to the impact of changes in refinery equipment and oil fields on supply. The export of Sudan's low - sulfur Nile crude is affected by the shutdown of Heglig oil field, and the raw materials mainly flow to East Asia. The gasoline unit maintenance plan of Dangote refinery has changed, with the inspection time postponed and the duration shortened, resulting in less than expected near - term low - sulfur supply increase. The delayed return of Al - Zour refinery equipment supports the low - sulfur market. The return of Malaysia's RFCC unit is delayed, and the newly commissioned RFCC in Indonesia operates at a low load. On the demand side, there is no driving force for low - sulfur winter power generation demand, and attention should be paid to winter temperatures and natural gas conditions in Europe and East Asia [7] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a low level, and it is expected to maintain a stable and weak situation in the fourth quarter. Although Russian energy facilities are attacked, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil is revised upwards, and the overall export volume is not greatly affected. The near - term high - sulfur export from Mexico has increased significantly. On the demand side, a new batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 is expected to be issued in advance in November, and the quota volume is significantly higher than that at the end of last year, resulting in a weakening of fuel feed demand [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data - Futures prices: The price of FU main contract decreased from 2508 on December 8, 2025, to 2418 on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 90; the price of LU main contract decreased from 3089 to 3014, a decrease of 75 [3] - Futures positions: The position of FU main contract increased from 17.7 million hands on December 8, 2025, to 18.7 million hands on December 9, 2025, an increase of 1.0 million hands; the position of LU main contract decreased from 5.8 million hands to 5.6 million hands, a decrease of 0.2 million hands [3] - Warehouse receipts: The FU warehouse receipts decreased from 26090 tons on December 8, 2025, to 6100 tons on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 19990 tons; the LU warehouse receipts decreased from 370 to 40, a decrease of 330 [3] - Spreads: The FU1 - 5 spread decreased from - 65 to - 70, a decrease of 5; the LU1 - 2 spread decreased from - 18 to - 25, a decrease of 7; the LU - FU main contract spread increased from 581 to 596, an increase of 15; the FU01 - outer market 12 spread decreased from 8.8 to 4.9, a decrease of 3.9; the LU02 - outer market 01 spread increased from 10.1 to 10.4, an increase of 0.3 [3] Part 2: Market Research and Judgment - Market overview: In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Dec/Jan monthly spread remains at - 3.5 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Dec/Jan monthly spread is from - 1.5 to - 1.8 US dollars/ton [5] - Important information: India's HPCL tendered to sell 33,000 tons of high - sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), to be loaded at Vizag from December 28 to 30, and the tender ended on December 9 [6] - Market trend judgment: As mentioned in the core viewpoints section [7] Part 3: Relevant Attached Figures - The report provides six figures, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Singapore LSFO - GO, high - sulfur fuel oil cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9]