华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of stable supply and weak demand, coking coal and coke prices lack upward momentum and are expected to face downward pressure. The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures have gradually shifted to the 2605 contract, and the prices have not yet stabilized, so operations should be cautious [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward, and the prices remained weak at night. Affected by the weak delivery logic, the 01 contract of coking coal led the decline. The spot market was generally weak, with domestic coal prices experiencing a supplementary decline. Steel mills completed the first round of price cuts for coke and there were still expectations of further cuts [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: It is expected that the supply of coking coal will remain relatively stable. The production of domestic coking coal mines is not significantly boosted by coal supply guarantees, and it is difficult for coking coal output to increase significantly during the off - season of downstream demand. However, imports remain at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal increased to 19.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.77 tons. The total arrival volume of seaborne coal last week was 958.63 tons, reaching a new high since November last year [3] - Demand: The pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is around 35%, and the blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline, continuously suppressing the rigid demand for raw materials. Since December, steel mills have started to transfer the pressure to the raw material end. The key variable in demand lies in the inventory replenishment rhythm before the Spring Festival. If downstream enterprises start to replenish raw material inventories intensively in mid - to - late December, the demand side may receive phased support, but the intensity of replenishment will still be restricted by the sales and profits of finished products, and the sustainability is expected to be weak [3]