螺纹热卷日报-20251209

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3230 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3140 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3270 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3200 yuan (-20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector continued its weak and volatile trend today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The overall spot trading volume of steel products was weak, and the speculative sentiment was poor, with low-price terminal purchases being the main activity [5] - According to last week's data from Steelhome, the production of the five major steel products decreased, with rebar production decreasing at a faster rate. The molten iron output continued to decline, and the total steel inventory accelerated its decline, with the decline rate of social inventory faster than that of factory inventory [5] - Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for steel products accelerated its decline, with the decline in rebar demand greater than that of hot-rolled coils, while the demand for cold-rolled coils continued to rise supported by the manufacturing industry [5] - Due to the recent tightening of environmental inspections, it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and the driving force for active production cuts is limited [5] - Recently, affected by the significant increase in foreign coal supply and the change of the main contract, coking coal and coke fell sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental factors, and steel mills also have restocking expectations. The structural shortage of iron ore PB powder provides support for steel costs [5] - Recently, infrastructure demand has increased, and enterprise payment collections have improved, resulting in the apparent demand for steel products not being weaker than the seasonal average. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will still maintain a range-bound trend following the fundamentals, but affected by seasonality, the performance may be weaker than in November [5] - The Politburo Standing Committee meeting will be held in December. Pay attention to the impact of macro news on the market. Continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak and volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio and short the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread at high levels [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - Starting from 00:00 on December 10, Taiyuan will launch a level II (orange alert) emergency response to heavy pollution weather [7][8] - In November 2025, China exported 818,000 vehicles. From January to November, the cumulative exports reached 7.331 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are 29 figures in the report, including steel price trends, basis, spreads, and profit charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][10][11]