油脂产业周报：油脂区间震荡为主，等待报告指引-20251209

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market in a wide - range oscillation, waiting for the final US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - The future trading of the oil and fat market will focus on the final determination of US biofuel obligations, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil - producing areas, the arrival schedule of US soybeans, and the progress of China - Canada relations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil and fat market lies in the game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the potential tight supply of rapeseed due to China - Canada relations, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils and fats [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Short - term wide - range oscillation adjustment, with a possible upward shift in the price center in the medium term. - Price Ranges: P2601 oscillates between 8200 - 8900 yuan/ton, Y2601 between 8000 - 8400 yuan/ton, and OI between 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton. - Technical Analysis: For single - side short - term trading, consider a rebound in palm oil; for arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9300 - 10300 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [21][23]. - Strategies: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the basis strategy; for the calendar - spread strategy, with high uncertainty in Indonesia's B50 policy next year, holders of the P1 - 5 reverse spread can take profits [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides detailed information on the daily prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both the futures and spot markets [24][25]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Indonesia's palm oil rectification is accelerating, which may disrupt production efficiency [26]. - Negative Information: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach a six - year high; domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are increasing, and the soybean crushing volume is high [27]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil and fat transactions have remained stable, with an increase in rapeseed oil transactions and a slight decline in soybean oil and palm oil transactions [28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's high - frequency palm oil production and export data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35]. 3. Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oil and fat market rebounded this week, but lacks upward momentum. Capital trends vary among palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with different positions and sentiment [31]. - Basis Structure: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to bottom out this week, remaining weak due to high inventory and average demand [33]. - Calendar - Spread Structure: The oil and fat market shows differentiation, with the soybean oil and rapeseed oil in a Back structure that has become shallower; the palm oil 1 - 5 spread has repaired upward, indicating lower expectations for the producing areas next year [34]. - Spread Structure: The soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm spreads all declined slightly this week, with rapeseed oil weakening and palm oil rebounding slightly [61]. - Foreign Market: The foreign market was weakly oscillating this week, with palm oil and soybean oil under pressure due to a lack of positive factors [65]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads rebounded slightly this week, but the cost of soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [68]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As a net importer of palm oil, China's import profit has changed slightly, with few new purchases due to the negative basis [70]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in November is expected to decline slightly, but the inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high, with supply pressure still existing [72]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Palm oil: Low procurement willingness due to the negative basis, and limited domestic purchases are expected during the off - season [75]. - Soybean oil: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [75]. - Rapeseed oil: The inventory will continue to decline, and supply may be tight if China - Canada relations do not improve [75]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats may remain stable and weak [77].