沥青日报：低开后震荡运行-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint The supply of asphalt has increased slightly, with the production scheduled to decrease in December. The downstream demand is generally weak, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The price of crude oil is weakly fluctuating, and the price of asphalt in Shandong has been falling recently. The market is cautious about the winter storage contract. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt will fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% month - on - month, 1.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month - on - month (3.1%) and 344,000 tons year - on - year (13.8%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% month - on - month, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased month - on - month and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The price of crude oil fluctuated weakly. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone was shut down, but the discount of diluted asphalt widened. Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. The demand will weaken further, and it is expected that the futures price of asphalt will fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 fell 0.41% to 2,943 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,928 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 2,963 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 6,677 to 201,816 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to - 13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - In terms of supply, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% month - on - month, 1.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% month - on - month, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].