ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-12-09 11:15Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of overseas markets and selective domestic demand as key investment themes for 2026, highlighting the high certainty of performance growth driven by international expansion and the favorable valuation of core targets [2][4][8]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among leading companies in the new consumption sector, with a focus on those capable of overseas production and distribution [8]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a growth of approximately 12% from January to November 2025, ranking 17th among 31 sub-sectors [12][18]. - Key drivers for the sector's performance included asset restructuring and the emergence of new consumption trends, particularly in segments like tiles, flooring, and home furnishings [12][18]. Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - Packaging: Companies like Yutong, Inke, and Baosteel are recommended for their strong overseas delivery capabilities and cost advantages [8]. - Export: Companies with robust overseas manufacturing and multi-market operations, such as Gongchuang Turf and Yongyi Co., are highlighted [8]. - Paper: The report suggests investing in leading firms like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, as the paper cycle is at a low point with price increases expected [8]. - Pet Products: The sector is anticipated to stabilize, with recommendations for brands transitioning to premium products, such as Yiyi Co. [8]. - Trendy Toys: Companies like Pop Mart are recommended due to their strong market position and expansion potential in overseas markets [8]. - Tobacco: The report is optimistic about the HNB industry and recommends companies like Smoore International [8]. - Home Furnishings: Despite ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, companies like Bull Group and Gujia Home are expected to find growth opportunities [8]. - Personal Care: The report sees potential in brands adapting to online strategies and new retail channels, recommending companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral [8]. Financial Performance Review - The packaging and printing sector showed strong recovery with double-digit growth, while the personal care sector experienced structural differentiation in performance [22][23]. - The report provides a detailed financial performance overview, indicating a recovery in revenue growth and profitability metrics across various segments [23][24]. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.08% in Q3 2025, with notable declines in the paper, packaging, and personal care segments [28][31]. - Leading companies in fund holdings include Pop Mart, Sun Paper, and Xiangxin Home, reflecting investor sentiment towards growth-oriented firms [31][33].