山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is weak with fluctuations, the medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation, and the long - term outlook is a step - by - step upward trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.92%, Shanghai silver down 0.68%, platinum down 1.30%, and palladium up 0.47%. [1] - Core Logic - Short - term Risk Aversion: The risk aversion caused by the trade war has subsided, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains. [1] - Hedging Attribute: Putin met with Trump's special envoy and Kushner to discuss possible ways to end the Ukraine war. The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations were announced. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions still exist. [1] - Monetary Attribute: Speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams increased the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. The Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity changed little, but the government shutdown suppressed demand in many places. US consumer spending in September increased moderately, and inflation reached the fastest growth rate in nearly a year and a half. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December to soar by nearly 90%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. On the demand side, the hydrogen energy industry is listed as a strategic emerging industry, which forms a long - term strong expectation for the demand for platinum - based catalysts. Palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [6] - Fund and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF had a slight increase in positions. The recent explicit inventory of silver increased slightly. [6] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [7] Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are 658.6185 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.65% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.51, the US dollar index is 99.11. [9] - Other Key Indicators: There are various data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and other aspects. [11][12] - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027. [13]